U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz would become "worthless" as 50% to 70% of energy products currently shipped through it would be rerouted via new pipelines. This assertion, made on September 1st, 2026, during a period of conflict with Iran, suggests a significant shift in the strategic importance of the waterway. Bessent's comments are seen by some analysts as a negotiation tactic by the U.S. administration, aimed at pressuring Iran and demonstrating a path to reduced reliance on the strait.
However, energy analysts largely disagree with Bessent's assessment. Salih Yilmaz, a senior energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasized that while oil has alternatives that can expand relatively quickly, LNG and container shipping are much harder to replicate, ensuring the strait's continued strategic importance. Marex energy markets analyst Sasha Foss echoed this sentiment, stating, "Geography is destiny and the Strait of Hormuz is too critical an artery to be completely bypassed." They predict its importance will only be diminished, not eliminated, by new alternatives.
Despite the construction of new bypass pipelines, such as the UAE's expanded Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, which will double its capacity to 1.5 million barrels per day by next year, these alternatives will not fully replace the strait's normal flow. Analysts like Yilmaz noted that even with these new pipelines, they fall "well short of fully replacing the roughly 20 million barrels a day of oil and products that normally transit Hormuz." Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can move around 7 million barrels per day, but even combined with the UAE's capacity, this does not represent half of the strait's pre-war normal flow of approximately 21 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also estimates that even after major pipeline projects are completed in several years, around 10 million barrels per day of oil will still need to pass through the strait to return to pre-war export levels.
The most challenging aspect of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz remains LNG exports. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facilities are located within the Gulf, meaning virtually all seaborne Qatari LNG destined for global markets must still transit the strait. There is currently no existing pipeline network capable of rerouting these LNG exports at significant volumes. This makes LNG one of the most "structurally exposed parts of the Gulf energy system" to any disruption in the strait. Experts, like Robert McNally, former senior director for international energy on President George W. Bush's National Security Council, assert that the Strait of Hormuz remains "the most relevant chokepoint on the planet."
The new pipelines, while offering some redundancy, also come with their own vulnerabilities. Hasnain Malik, head of geopolitical risk at Tellimer, pointed out that these newly expanded pipelines and ports might prove "equally vulnerable to drone and missile attack." This was highlighted by the Houthi blockade in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which demonstrated that rerouting Saudi oil to Yanbu increased exposure to another vulnerable chokepoint. The overall consensus among energy analysts is that while bypass routes are beneficial for managing instability, they cannot fully substitute for the Strait of Hormuz, and the region needs an "architecture of redundancy" rather than a complete replacement for the strait.
