Efforts by Gulf exporters to bypass the Strait of Hormuz through new pipelines are proving to be only a partial solution, despite claims from some U.S. officials that the strait would become "irrelevant." While pipelines offer an alternative for some oil and products, energy analysts widely disagree that the strait's strategic importance will diminish significantly in the near future. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had suggested that 50% to 70% of energy products would soon transit through pipelines, but experts like Salih Yilmaz of Bloomberg Intelligence and Robert McNally, former senior director for international energy on President George W. Bush's National Security Council, emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz remains the "most relevant chokepoint on the planet." They highlight that LNG and container shipping are much harder to replicate via alternative routes, ensuring the strait's continued importance.
Several countries in the region are investing in bypass infrastructure. The UAE is expanding its Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, aiming to double its export capacity to 1.5 million barrels per day, with completion expected next year. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline can move around 7 million barrels per day to the Red Sea. However, even with these expansions, the combined capacity of these alternative routes, estimated at about 10 million to 12 million barrels per day, falls well short of the roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and products that normally transited Hormuz prior to recent conflicts. Following a war that began in late February, traffic through Hormuz dropped significantly, from around 21 million barrels per day to approximately 4.9 million barrels per day by the second quarter of 2026.
The recent conflict and blockades in the Red Sea, particularly by Houthis targeting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, have further complicated bypass strategies. Saudi Arabia rerouted a substantial volume of oil to Yanbu, increasing flow through Bab al-Mandab from 5.4 million barrels per day in late 2025 to 8.1 million in Q2 2026. However, the subsequent Houthi blockade led to a sharp decline in traffic through Bab al-Mandab, causing Saudi oil exports to fall to a decade-low of 3 million barrels per day in August 2026, compared to 7.3 million in February. This demonstrates the limitations of shifting dependence from one chokepoint to another. For LNG, in particular, the Strait of Hormuz is irreplaceable in the short to medium term, as Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities, a major global LNG exporter, are located within the Gulf and lack pipeline alternatives to an alternative coast. Energy analysts predict continued elevated oil, natural gas, and food prices for at least the next year due to these supply disruptions and the ongoing geopolitical situation.
