The Philadelphia Phillies are significantly altering traditional baseball batting order strategies, most notably by placing Luis Arraez, a contact hitter with limited power, in the cleanup position. This deviates sharply from the historical role of the cleanup hitter, typically reserved for power hitters like Lou Gehrig or Willie McCovey. For instance, Arraez has 41 career home runs in eight seasons, while leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber already has 35 home runs this season alone, highlighting the unconventional nature of this setup. Despite the perceived oddity, the Phillies' approach is driven by data suggesting that optimizing batting order may not significantly impact overall runs scored, perhaps by only a point or so over an entire season.
The rationale behind this move is to maximize plate appearances for the team's best hitters. By placing Arraez at cleanup, he will get roughly 18 more plate appearances than if he batted second, and 36 more than if he batted third over a season. This strategy focuses on his exceptional contact skills, particularly with runners in scoring position (RISP). Arraez boasts a .348 batting average with RISP, surpassing other top players like Freddie Freeman (.340) and Aaron Judge (.327). The team believes he is best suited to drive in runs rather than getting on base ahead of other hitters.
This Phillies' strategy reflects a broader, decade-long shift in MLB batting order philosophy. Modern analytics, influenced by works like Tom Tango's "The Book," suggest that the leadoff spot requires on-base skills more than speed, and the number two spot should feature an all-around hitter. In fact, for the first time in the Live Ball Era (since 1920), the second spot in the order is now the most productive, surpassing the traditional third and cleanup spots. Many top players, such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Trout, now frequently bat in the top two positions. The third spot, once reserved for the game's best power hitters, has become less productive as star players have moved higher in the lineup, making it more common for a good-not-great hitter to bat there, often with two outs and no runners on base. This evolution emphasizes getting the best hitters to the plate as often as possible, challenging long-held beliefs about lineup construction. While the total impact of lineup optimization on run production may be small, only a few runs over 162 games, the shift is undeniable and widespread across the league.
