President Donald Trump is struggling to bring down gasoline and diesel prices before the November 3 midterm elections, with rising fuel costs becoming a significant political liability for the Republican party. Gasoline prices are currently above $4 per gallon, nearly double their level at the beginning of the year, while diesel has surpassed $6 per gallon. No U.S. president has faced a midterm election with such high fuel prices.
Despite Trump's efforts, including urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel production and attempting a Venezuelan oil deal, analysts and officials agree that any substantial price drops are unlikely to materialize before the midterms. Even if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were reached immediately, it would take at least eight weeks for lower crude oil prices to be reflected at the pump. This delay is due to market skepticism about the longevity of such agreements and significant issues in global refining capacity, with nearly half of Russia's refining capacity offline.
The Venezuelan oil deal, which Trump claimed would provide the U.S. with at least 65 billion barrels of oil, has been met with skepticism. State Department officials briefed House Republicans, stating that Venezuelan oil, which is very heavy, requires specialized refineries and will not hit U.S. markets anytime soon, certainly not before the November elections. While officials stated that "at-cost oil" under the agreement would begin flowing in November and scale up in 2027, this timeline is too late to impact midterm voters.
The administration's attempts to alleviate price pressures have included a proposed $5,000 check for every American adult if the Republican party wins the elections. However, the immediate challenge remains the inability to quickly reduce fuel costs, which are directly impacting the cost of living and turning voters against the Republican Party. The high fuel prices are largely attributed to the war against Iran, which has driven up the cost of oil, currently trading above $100 a barrel, far from Trump's prediction of $2 to $3 a barrel post-war victory.
