Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing as Middle Eastern producers ramp up exports despite the lingering conflict with Iran. Estimates from oil traders suggest that 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude are now passing through the strait, a significant rise since July when attacks on supertankers heightened risks, though still roughly half of pre-war levels. This uptick is supported by shuttle runs, where tankers transport crude to locations just outside the Persian Gulf for collection by other vessels unwilling to navigate the strait directly. All major regional suppliers except Iran are now utilizing this method for exports.
Recent satellite images obtained by Bloomberg indicate heightened activity, showing Saudi Arabia had its highest number of tankers at export installations in several weeks on Tuesday. Loading activity from Iraq's ports in the region even surpassed pre-war rates briefly the day before. Smaller producers like Qatar and Kuwait are also contributing to this momentum, with their combined shipments reaching 70% of pre-conflict levels, up from a pre-war export volume of 2 million barrels a day. This increased supply from the Persian Gulf has coincided with a drop in exports from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea facilities, as the kingdom also loads more oil from Sidi Kerir, an Egyptian Mediterranean port with Saudi-owned storage, complicating overall shipment tracking.
Despite the increase in flows, it remains uncertain whether all the regional exports from the Persian Gulf have reached their final customers, as ship-to-ship transfers, typically occurring near Oman's port of Sohar or Fujairah in the UAE, can take several days. Tankertrackers.com, which monitors Automatic Identification System signals, estimates global market flows over the past seven days at 3.7 million barrels a day, with shipments counted only after passing the US blockade line. The rise in crude coming out of Hormuz, if sustainable, could help keep crude oil prices down, although they have recently hovered around $85 a barrel.
