The ambitious oil deal between the U.S. and Venezuela, orchestrated by President Trump and Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, grants North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) a 100-year lease on 17 oil fields holding an estimated 65 billion barrels of oil, representing 20% of Venezuela's total reserves. While the White House touts a $100 billion investment and $209 billion in royalties, experts, including economist Francisco Monaldi, question these figures, labeling them as political theater and highlighting legal uncertainties regarding the Pentagon's proposed 35% stake in NABEP. Concerns also arise from the requirement for NABEP to sell oil to the U.S. at cost, potentially undermining the financial viability for the promised investments and raising doubts about the company's ability to develop the fields.
The deal has drawn criticism for its structure and the choice of NABEP, a relatively small company, to manage vast resources. Ricardo Hausmann, a Harvard professor and former Venezuelan planning minister, described it as a "corrupt and predatory deal" that would hinder Venezuela's economic recovery. He argues that NABEP lacks the managerial, technological, and financial capital needed to develop these fields, predicting that potential investors would be deterred by the conditions set by the Trump administration. This skepticism is echoed by some major oil producers, who are wary of the deal's terms and the direct involvement of the U.S. government, with sources suggesting that the participation of larger oil companies is essential for achieving the deal's goals.
Despite NABEP's claim to have scaled its production in Venezuela from 18,000 to over 200,000 barrels per day, making it the second-largest private producer, the long-term viability of the deal is uncertain. Analysts point to the significant need for investment in Venezuela's oil sector, but current conditions, including sanctions and default status, make it difficult to attract capital. While some acknowledge the potential for opportunity, the legal and political uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government's partnership with NABEP, coupled with the controversial role of Betancourt—who has faced allegations of money laundering and tax fraud—cast a significant shadow over the deal's future. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil major actively investing in Venezuela, having announced a separate $7 billion deal to increase its production by 2031.
