Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity is significantly reduced after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 export trains and the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant, removing 12.8 million tonnes per year from the market, which accounts for approximately 17% of Qatar’s total LNG capacity. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated in March that repairs, particularly to the crucial “cold boxes” that purify and chill gas, could take three to five years. This damage has forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on long-term contracts with several countries, including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China, and is also delaying expansion plans at Ras Laffan.
The disruption has led to QatarEnergy negotiating multi-year US LNG contracts through 2031 with companies like Venture Global, Cheniere, and Woodside, signaling a shift from spot market purchases to securing long-term solutions for the shortfall. This move highlights the severity and anticipated longevity of the supply constraints. The International Energy Forum (IEF) noted that the global LNG market already had a thin supply cushion in 2025, with spare liquefaction capacity falling about 14 billion cubic meters short of the volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, leaving buyers with less buffer against such disruptions.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz, the sole export route for Qatari and Emirati LNG, reopens, the return to normal supply levels will not be immediate. High war-risk insurance costs and ongoing security concerns are slowing the return of LNG tankers, further complicating restoration efforts. Shell, which holds a 30% stake in QatarEnergy LNG’s fourth expansion train, anticipates its Pearl GTL plant could be back online by the end of the first quarter of 2027. However, the market has absorbed about three-quarters of the lost volumes since early March, mainly through increased US production and redirected cargoes to Asia, yet Europe remains particularly vulnerable with historically low gas storage levels ahead of winter.
