The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has drastically cut maritime traffic and crippled the Gulf's oil and cargo trade. Before the war, over 100 vessels, including many oil tankers, transited the strait daily. This has since collapsed to an average of just five vessels per day, marking an almost 95% decrease. This chokepoint is critical, handling over one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas flows. Direct crude oil exports through the strait have fallen to an average of just 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd).
While visible oil flows have significantly decreased, analysts like Goldman Sachs estimate total Gulf oil exports, including "dark crossings" where vessels turn off tracking, are around 15 million to 16 million bpd, about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Vortexa estimated August exports at 15 million bpd, still down 10 million bpd from pre-war figures. "Dark shipments" from June to August amounted to at least 500 million barrels, valued at over $40 billion, based on an average oil price of $80 per barrel. Despite this, crude exports from the Gulf region have nearly halved, from about 17 million bpd in 2025 to roughly 9 million bpd as of August 2026, with 5 million to 7 million bpd currently disrupted.
The impact on cargo trade is severe. DP World reported a 90.1% decline in container throughput at its flagship Jebel Ali terminal in Q2 2026, handling only 374,000 TEU compared to approximately 3.8 million TEU a year prior. Kuwait experienced an 86% drop in daily port calls, with the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, and Bahrain also seeing significant declines of around 66-69%. Alternative ports like Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, and Omani ports are being used, with goods transported overland, but these lack the scale of Jebel Ali. This rerouting has led to customs backlogs, limited trucking supply, and equipment availability challenges, as the alternative infrastructure is not designed for such volumes. Although not yet at the scale of the Red Sea crisis, DHL Global Forwarding warns of growing pressure and "butterfly effects" that could intensify into broader global supply chain disruptions the longer the closure lasts. The cost and availability of oil are also major concerns impacting all trades globally.
