Russian farmers are significantly cutting back on winter wheat planting for the 2027 harvest, with sowing down by approximately 25% compared to recent years' averages. By early September 2026, about 2.6 million hectares of winter crops, including 2.4 million hectares of wheat, had been planted. This reduction is primarily driven by low domestic prices, severe disruptions to grain exports, and escalating production costs, which have collectively deteriorated the financial position of farmers.
The decline in sowing is widespread; a survey of about 1,000 farmers revealed that 26% plan to completely abandon winter wheat sowing this year, while an additional 32% intend to reduce their planted area. Only 29% expect to maintain last year's sowing levels. Farmers cite a critical shortage of funds for essential inputs like fuel, seeds, and fertilizers as a major impediment to the autumn planting campaign.
Export disruptions have played a significant role in this crisis. Russian grain exports in August 2026 reportedly fell by almost 60% year-on-year to 2.2 million tons, with September shipments estimated at around 2 million tons. These figures represent the lowest export levels since 2010 for those months. The reduced exports have led to an accumulation of grain on the domestic market, driving farmgate prices below production costs in some regions. The Russian Grain Union warns that a working capital shortage could pose a major risk for the 2027 harvest.
Adding to the pressure are disruptions to Black Sea and Azov export infrastructure, as well as rising fuel prices, which increase the cost of fieldwork. Analysts suggest that if export problems persist, up to 35 million tons of grain from the 2026 crop, including about 22 million tons of wheat, could remain unsold domestically. This massive overhang would continue to depress internal market prices and further discourage future planting, potentially creating a bullish supply shock for global wheat markets in the medium term, despite current weak cash markets.
