Democrats are experiencing momentum in the midterm elections, potentially expanding the number of congressional seats they could win. However, this momentum is challenged by a substantial financial disparity in political advertising. In nine out of ten top Senate races, pro-Republican ads have received more spending than pro-Democratic ads in the past month. The Wesleyan Media Project indicates that while Democrats benefit from more candidate spending, which receives lower unit rates, outside groups heavily favor Republicans, impacting the overall ad spending balance.
Ohio's Senate race between incumbent Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is the most expensive over the last month, with nearly $100 million spent. About $57 million of this favored Husted, while $40 million favored Brown. In Texas, the Senate race saw almost $60 million in spending, with approximately $38 million favoring Republican Ken Paxton and $21 million favoring Democrat James Talarico. Similarly, Maine's Senate race recorded over $50 million in spending, with $30 million supporting Republican Susan Collins and $20 million for Democrat Troy Jackson. Outside groups are a dominant force, accounting for the majority of ad spending in almost all competitive Senate races, often exceeding 60% of the total.
Overall, more than $6 billion has been spent on political ads in the 2025-26 election cycle as of mid-September, a figure reached earlier than in previous cycles. House races are also seeing increased ad volumes, up 44.5% from 2024. Ohio's gubernatorial race alone has seen over $38 million in spending, with three-quarters benefiting Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Across all federal and gubernatorial offices, groups have spent over $2 billion, with Super PACs contributing more than half of this, especially in governor races, and dark money nonprofits being active in House and Senate contests. Analysts suggest this cycle is on track to be the most expensive midterm on record, with significant activity from outside groups and an expected ramp-up in coordinated spending closer to election day.
