Iran is attempting to mitigate the impact of a US-led maritime blockade on its southern ports by accelerating a long-discussed strategy of moving more commerce through northern ports, railways, and land corridors. This shift is highlighted by Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh's discussions with Russian officials about activating northern borders to divert a significant portion of imports and exports from southern maritime routes. The country has seven land neighbors, access to the Caspian Sea, and routes connecting it to Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Caucasus, offering more options than reliance on a single maritime gateway.
While this strategy offers a resilience mechanism, it faces significant challenges. Historically, 83% of Iran's 210 million tons of imports have moved through southern maritime borders, a volume difficult to replicate by land. The cost difference is substantial; shipping a container from China to Iran through southern ports costs approximately $3,000, while the same journey overland costs roughly $12,000. Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, estimates that a prolonged shift to land routes could add about $18 billion to Iran's annual trading costs, considering around 2 million containers enter through the south yearly. Furthermore, a 50,000-ton shipload would require about 2,000 trucks, which impacts domestic distribution and increases fuel, insurance, warehousing, and border costs.
Despite the challenges, these land routes are crucial for moving essential goods such as food, medicine, and industrial inputs, and for fostering deeper economic ties with neighboring countries. Northern ports have a nominal annual capacity of over 30 million tons, with less than one-third currently in use, suggesting room for increased cargo through the Caspian Sea. Turkey also offers a route to Europe, with rail freight across Lake Van carrying approximately 477,000 tons in 2024. Pakistan, Iraq, and Caspian routes can also support regional trade. However, these alternatives come with higher costs, limited capacity, and their own political dependencies, making them a resilience strategy rather than a full replacement for large-scale maritime trade, especially for crude oil shipments.
