German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing a critical juncture in his political career, with his chancellorship potentially unraveling after just 16 months in office. Two regional elections scheduled for Sunday in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are expected to deliver further setbacks for his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. Merz's national popularity has plummeted to 14%, and the CDU/CSU conservative party alliance is polling at an unprecedented low of 18%, significantly trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which leads with 29% nationally.
The CDU suffered a crushing defeat to the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, losing more than half its voter support. Polls suggest the CDU could fall to just 7% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, risking failure to meet the 5% vote threshold needed to enter the state parliament. Such a result would be the party's worst defeat in a state or national election in Germany's post-World War II history. In Berlin, the CDU is polling around 20%, trailing the far-left Die Linke, and could lose its leadership in the city government.
Merz has canceled a planned speech at the United Nations General Assembly to address the domestic fallout and has arranged a meeting with CDU leaders before polls close on Sunday to gauge their support. Despite some state leaders rallying behind him, senior party members are privately discussing a "Kanzlertausch" (change of chancellor) if the election results are disastrous. Merz has also begun to soften his stance on policies, such as soaring fuel costs and early retirement, and has admitted he needs to improve his public approval ratings, which are among the lowest for any post-war German chancellor.
