Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued a stark warning regarding potential electricity shortages beginning in 2027, with the national power system facing a projected deficit of 4,256 MW in 2027 and nearly 14,000 MW by 2030. The northern region is expected to bear the brunt of these shortages, with an anticipated deficit of 5,680 MW in 2027, escalating to approximately 13,000 MW by 2030. This alarming forecast is attributed to delays in numerous power generation and transmission projects, alongside rapidly increasing electricity demand.
The country has become a net energy importer since 2015, with the net share of imported energy in total primary energy demand projected to reach 43.9% in 2025 and 43.6% by 2030, equivalent to imports of 83.3 million TOE. Despite an estimated total electricity production of 354.4 billion kWh in 2026, a 9.7% increase from 2025, and a peak capacity of 57,537 MW, the delays in Power Development Plan 8 projects pose a significant risk to supply.
Only about 5% of the planned power generation capacity has been operationalized in the last three years, with a mere 9% having started construction. A staggering 45% of projects still lack investment approval. Similar issues plague the transmission grid, where Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) and its units are only capable of implementing about 28.6% of the planned projects. Obstacles such as lengthy approval procedures, land issues, and difficulties in securing financing for LNG power projects, coupled with volatile LNG prices, contribute to these delays. The Ministry also noted that some forecasts in Power Development Plan 8 were unrealistic and failed to account for risks like load fluctuations and geopolitical impacts.
Both the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have emphasized the urgency of addressing these delays, with the Prime Minister issuing Directive 01/CT-TTg to ensure stable power supply through 2030. Urgent action is needed to update and supplement power sources, particularly large-scale solar power projects which have a shorter construction time of about six months. Improving transmission infrastructure is also critical, as current low transmission tariffs and limited financial capacity hinder large projects. The Minister of Industry and Trade has requested the completion of an electricity supply scenario for 2027 by August 2026 to facilitate preparatory measures.
