Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview on the Big Take podcast, indicated that the ongoing war in Iran could conclude swiftly, possibly even "tomorrow," depending on two key factors: markets and munitions. He noted President Trump's sensitivity to market performance, suggesting that sustained downturns in oil, stock, or bond markets could act as a limiting factor in continuing the conflict. Conversely, a prolonged period of market stability or growth might allow the war to persist.
Blinken also highlighted the critical role of munitions, describing the conflict as a "race" to see who expends their ordnance first. He raised concerns about the US depleting its arsenal, especially using expensive interceptors against cheaper Iranian drones, which he described as "not a good equation." Such depletion, he warned, could leave the US at a disadvantage against other global powers like China or Russia, necessitating a careful assessment of these resources and production times.
He suggested that President Trump might declare victory by claiming to have dismantled Iran's nuclear, missile, or naval programs, and then leave the future of the Iranian regime to its people. This approach, Blinken believes, could provide an "off-ramp" for the US. He also pointed out that the war has already cost US taxpayers approximately $38 billion in the first five months, primarily for replacing expended equipment and increased operational costs, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The conflict is also projected to increase inflation by about 0.5 percentage points by early next year.
The ongoing conflict has also severely impacted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global shipping lane. Prior to the war, about 125 commercial vessels transited daily, but this number has plummeted to as few as four on some days, disrupting a significant portion of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Iran has linked the reopening of the Strait to the US meeting its demands, which include lifting sanctions, ending military operations, and releasing frozen assets, further complicating any potential resolution.
