Moscow has accelerated its crude oil exports, shipping 3.44 million barrels a day in the four weeks leading up to March 15, 2026. This surge is a direct response to a significant increase in global oil prices, which have been driven upwards by Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Russia is also benefiting from a US tariff waiver that allows buyers to purchase Russian crude loaded before March 12 without fear of sanctions. This waiver, which has been extended and widened, coupled with the rising benchmark prices, has created a lucrative environment for Russian oil exports. Further easing of sanctions could occur if the flow of Middle Eastern crude through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume quickly.
The current geopolitical landscape, marked by conflict in the Middle East and a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline outage, has pushed Brent crude above $105 and West Texas Intermediate toward $102 a barrel. These elevated prices make Russian crude even more attractive, especially for buyers like Chinese refiners who are already paying double premiums for key Russian grades such as ESPO due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and improved refining margins. These Chinese buyers had previously favored Iranian oil, which is now largely unavailable due to a US blockade.
