Bank of America has outlined scenarios for Brent crude oil prices, with a base case of $83 per barrel for the second half of 2026 and $75 for 2027. However, the bank also presented two significantly higher scenarios tied to geopolitical disruptions. If clashes impacting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue until the end of the year, Brent prices could range from $95 to $120 per barrel.
The most extreme scenario, an 80% increase from the base case, projects Brent crude reaching up to $150 per barrel. This surge would occur if a wider conflict leads to major damage to critical energy infrastructure. This $150 forecast was reported by various outlets, including the Associated Press, citing Bank of America analysts. Recent events, such as an outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline due to attacks on September 15, 2026, further highlight the vulnerability of energy infrastructure.
The bank's forecast indicates a significant gap between its base case and these potential disruption scenarios. The floor of the prolonged disruption scenario, at $95, is 14.5% above the $83 base case, showing no overlap. This suggests that if disruption is expected to persist, the bank anticipates a substantial price increase. The $150 escalation case is more than 80% higher than the base case for the second half of 2026 and double the 2027 forecast of $75 per barrel.
The underlying reason for these price levels, according to Bank of America, is continued disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing tensions affecting oil movements. The bank's central expectation in its base case is that the disruption premium will unwind over time, leading to lower prices in 2027. For context, Brent settled at $97.31 on September 7, which falls within the range of the bank's conditional disruption scenario, but above its base case.
