BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt stated that regulated sportsbooks like BetMGM still hold significant advantages over prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, even as these newer platforms expand their sports-related contracts. Greenblatt highlighted that sportsbooks offer a superior overall experience, citing stronger odds presentation, more robust real-time bet-building tools, and a broader betting product. This assertion comes as the NFL season is viewed as a critical test for the sportsbook sector amidst growing attention on prediction markets from bettors and investors.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that approximately $29.5 billion will be wagered legally during the NFL season through regulated operators, a figure that is flat year-over-year, even as sports activity on prediction markets increases. The AGA also noted that legal NFL betting growth could see its first slowdown since 2018, attributing this to prediction markets siphoning over $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025. Prediction markets saw record trading, with over $5 billion in contracts exchanged during the NFL's opening weekend, highlighting their growing influence.
Greenblatt acknowledged the impact of prediction markets on customer acquisition costs, noting that these platforms are heavily investing in marketing, including buying sports betting keywords and advertising with sports media properties. BetMGM reported first-quarter results slightly below expectations, partly due to these intensifying competitive dynamics. Consequently, BetMGM adjusted its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to the lower end of its $300 million to $350 million range and revenue guidance to between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion. The company plans to reallocate its marketing spend away from states where prediction market activity has driven up costs, prioritizing online casino states.
Despite a 16% drop in active sports betting customers for BetMGM in the first quarter, handle and net gaming revenue per active customer increased by 23% and 25%, respectively. Greenblatt maintained confidence in BetMGM's path to $500 million in adjusted EBITDA for the following year, emphasizing its strong position as an "iGaming-first operator." He also stressed that prediction markets are not drawing away "quality players" from traditional sportsbooks.
The competitive landscape is evolving, with BetMGM publicly defending its market position against newer alternatives. This means that competition is no longer solely between traditional sportsbooks but increasingly includes regulated operators and prediction market products. States like New York have already seen potential impacts, with August betting handle decreasing by 15.3% year-over-year, marking only the second time this has occurred since the market began.
