The ongoing war with Iran, launched by President Donald Trump in February, is causing a significant increase in gasoline and diesel prices, making the cost of living a central issue in the upcoming midterm elections. Diesel prices, which hit a record national average of $6.05 per gallon (up from $5.85 a week prior and $3.70 a year ago), are particularly impactful as they affect freight, delivery networks, and farm equipment, leading to higher costs for groceries and other goods. Federal Highway Administration data reveals that states with high diesel fuel use, many of which voted for Trump in 2024, are experiencing the sharpest increases, posing a political challenge for the President and his party.
Gasoline prices have also risen, with the national average reaching $4.22 per gallon, the highest since June, and Brent crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel for the first time since July. Despite the traditional post-Labor Day decline in demand, AAA analysts do not anticipate a drop in prices due to global oil market volatility stemming from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for about 20% of the world's oil supply. Trump himself has acknowledged that high gas prices might persist until after the midterms, although he initially stated the war would last only weeks.
Voter concern over the cost of living is high, with 47% of registered voters identifying it as the most important factor for their midterm vote. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 71% of adults disapprove of Trump's handling of this issue, and his net approval on the economy is 33 points underwater. The soaring fuel costs are complicating Republican efforts to maintain their majorities in Congress, with some in the party fearing that the economic impact of the war is undermining their platform.
