The Houthi capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, including the strategic port city of Mokha and Perim Island, is reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf and significantly bolstering Iran's influence. This advance means that Iran, directly and through its proxies, now controls both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, which are two of the world's most vital maritime passages. Analysts like Farea al-Muslimi from Chatham House highlight that this control encompasses over 35% of the global fuel and oil trade, giving Iran unprecedented leverage.
This development creates a difficult choice for Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, forcing them to either absorb increasing economic and security costs or pursue diplomatic solutions with Tehran. The Houthis' actions, particularly their strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and shipping near Yanbu, are designed to exploit Saudi vulnerabilities and add economic pressure, especially as the Red Sea became a crucial alternative for Saudi oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Since the Houthi attacks resumed in July, Saudi oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb have reportedly plummeted by 95%.
The Houthi escalation is seen as a direct extension of Iran's strategy to open a second front in its broader conflict with the U.S. and its allies. Iranian arms and advice, guided by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, were crucial to the Houthi's swift advance. By establishing Houthi control over the Bab el-Mandeb alongside Iranian control of Hormuz, Tehran aims to establish a new status quo where it and its regional partners act as de facto gatekeepers for trillions of dollars' worth of annual trade.
