The current U.S. conflict with Iran is being likened to the long-lasting and divisive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that followed the September 11 attacks. This comparison, particularly around the 9/11 anniversary, prompts questions about whether the U.S. has again failed to learn from past conflicts or prepare a clear exit strategy for its involvement in Iran. Officials, however, emphasize that the current situation in Iran is different from previous engagements, citing significantly lower casualties.
Analysts like Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy note that the Trump administration has broken a post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington against launching another major, open-ended war in the Middle East. This could potentially leave a successor inheriting an entrenched U.S.-Iran conflict, highlighting the difficulty of achieving regime change through military means alone, as past experiences have shown even large ground forces were insufficient.
The conflict has reached a stalemate, with critical issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved. Despite the extended duration of the war and high fuel prices, which have cost the average U.S. household nearly $800, the oil market has proven resilient. This resilience is attributed to alternative transit routes circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, significant crude stockpiles, and a reduction in global oil usage. However, questions remain about how long these conditions can be sustained.
Reports indicate that the U.S. is bracing for a long war with Iran, with little sign of a near-term ceasefire or a return to normal Middle East energy flows, even if hostilities remain at a low intensity. President Trump has also signaled a desire for the U.S. to distance itself from the Iran war, potentially dampening prospects for renewed peace talks and broader U.S. involvement, even as Houthi activity adds another source of escalation to the conflict.
