Estimates for the "Great Wealth Transfer" vary significantly, ranging from $36 trillion to over $100 trillion. Visa Business and Economic Insights projects $36 trillion will transfer from baby boomers to Gen X and millennials over the next 20 years, while Cerulli Associates estimates a larger figure of $105 trillion by 2048. This discrepancy of over $60 trillion highlights differing methodologies and assumptions about deductions for debt, taxes, and charitable giving. Visa’s $36 trillion estimate, for instance, comes after stripping out liabilities, the wealth of the top 1%, retirement spending, taxes, and charity from an initial $93 trillion in baby boomer wealth. Cerulli, on the other hand, factors in these deductions but still arrives at a much higher total for heirs and spouses, estimating $18 trillion will go to charity out of $124 trillion in total transferrable wealth.
Despite the large headline figures, the actual amount inherited by typical households may be considerably smaller. Visa’s analysis suggests an average of $515,000 per inheriting household after various deductions. Many baby boomers still carry significant debt, including mortgages (41% for homeowners aged 65-79, 31% for those 80 and older), credit card debt, and auto loans, reducing the net wealth available for transfer. Additionally, a substantial portion of wealth is concentrated among the ultra-rich; Visa notes that after excluding the top 1%, only $60 trillion remains, with the top 2-10% owning $44 trillion, leaving just $16 trillion for the bottom 90% of boomer households.
The timing of these wealth transfers is also shifting to later in life. BNY Mellon's "Wealth in Motion" study indicates that "family dynamics" are the top factor influencing when ultra-high-net-worth individuals transfer wealth, ahead of tax concerns or life planning. Nearly half of ultra-rich respondents believe their heirs are unprepared to manage inherited wealth, and 47% have not fully completed their wealth-transfer plans. Older Americans are living longer, with wealthier individuals living even longer, pushing the peak inheritance age from late 50s to mid-60s. This prolonged timeline means the "Great Wealth Transfer" is likely to be a gradual process spanning decades, rather than a single, rapid event, with Gen X inheriting first, followed by millennials and Gen Z, with millennials expected to inherit the most at $46 trillion over 25 years.
