The war between Israel and Iran, which has seen daily Israeli airstrikes for four weeks and retaliatory attacks, has united Israel. However, Israeli security expert Shira Efron, a Middle East analyst at RAND, based in Tel Aviv, suggests that this conflict has failed to solve any of Israel's underlying problems. The war has significantly extended Israel's post-October 7 war footing, contributing to its growing economic burden.
The perspective from Israel, as discussed by Efron, indicates that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long emphasized the threat posed by Iran. While much attention is on potential actions by US President Donald Trump, there's a question of what happens if the two allies, Israel and the US, diverge on the ultimate goals of the conflict.
Efron's insights shed light on Israeli public opinion, potential miscalculations regarding Iran, and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. The war appears to have entered a stalemate, with critical issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved. Both Iran and the US are bracing for a protracted conflict with no immediate signs of a ceasefire or a return to normal Middle East energy flows, even if hostilities remain at a low intensity.
Bloomberg reports that Tehran's leaders are resolved to continue fighting, despite mounting economic costs, viewing the conflict as an existential threat. A senior Iranian official stated that Iran has rebuilt its missile capabilities and is prepared to escalate strikes on US and Gulf assets if Washington intensifies its own attacks. This indicates Iran's readiness for a more intense war, with escalation of counterstrikes if the US continues targeting its territory and infrastructure.
The current conflict has drawn comparisons to the post-9/11 "forever wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq, with analysts warning it could extend past the November elections and prove difficult to exit as economic costs accumulate. Despite administration officials arguing the Iran war is different due to lower casualties compared to previous engagements, concerns remain about the absence of a clear exit strategy and the potential for a prolonged, unpopular conflict.
