Ukrainian drone attacks have substantially degraded Russia's oil refining industry, leading to significant drops in production and forcing the country to import fuel. In August, Russia's crude oil output fell by 160,000 barrels a day from July, further lagging behind its OPEC+ quota. This decline comes as Ukraine has intensified its strikes on Russian oil assets, including refineries in the Perm region and Tatarstan.
The repeated strikes have had a tangible effect on Russia's fuel supply. Gasoline production in July 2026 was between 2.25 and 2.65 million tonnes, a considerable drop from 3.5 million tonnes in March. Similarly, diesel production fell to 5.2 to 5.6 million tonnes from 7.7 million tonnes. By the end of August, gasoline production covered only about 70% of domestic demand, creating a shortfall of approximately 30,000 tons per day. This deficit has led at least 17 Russian regions to implement fuel sale restrictions, such as limits of 30-40 liters per vehicle and odd-even systems for license plates.
To mitigate the shortages, Russia has resorted to importing gasoline by sea from countries like India, Morocco, and Turkey, and has increased purchases from Belarus to record levels. Analysts note the scale and coordination of these attacks are preventing Russia from repairing damaged plants before new strikes occur. For instance, the Saratov refinery, which processes about 2.2% of Russia’s total oil refining, has been targeted four times this year, forcing it to halt processing and requiring weeks for repairs.
Seaborne product loadings also reflect the impact, with July 2026 figures at 4.7 million tonnes, the lowest on record and less than half of the 9.6 million tonnes loaded in July 2025. This represents a 23% drop from June. Revenue from seaborne product exports also fell by 45% month-on-month in July, reaching 116 million euros per day, with volumes down 36%. Overall, Ukrainian drones have struck Russian oil refineries at least 70 times since the beginning of 2026, pushing the country’s refining output to its lowest level in two decades.
