Chinese solar wafer prices have stabilized this week, following a period of decline. However, this stability comes with limited transaction volumes and continued downward pressure on prices. The market is influenced by a cooling in overseas demand and weakening cell prices, which are transmitting upward along the supply chain. Low-priced wafer supplies continue to enter the market, pushing the price center further down.
Average transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers are approximately RMB 1.02/pc, RMB 1.02/pc, and RMB 1.12/pc, respectively. The price differentials between wafer sizes have widened. Specifically, 183 mm and 210 mm wafers, which primarily rely on overseas demand, have experienced greater downward pressure due to slower overseas procurement. Domestic demand for 210N wafers remains weak, and low-priced offers are increasing.
Wafer inventories currently stand at around 25 GW, a slight increase. Although temporarily stable polysilicon prices are providing some cost support, the overall market remains competitive. Expectations for policy support related to wafers have cooled, and the market has returned to a more competitive pricing environment. If polysilicon prices weaken further, wafer prices could face additional pressure. Market participants are advised to monitor changes in the polysilicon pricing system closely.
Previously, toward the end of August, rapidly weakening cell prices and demand had already put pressure on wafer prices, making shipments more difficult and leading to inventory accumulation. Transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers had fallen to around RMB 1.08/pc, RMB 1.10/pc, and RMB 1.17/pc, with some manufacturers offering further discounts. The price-hike sentiment triggered by earlier policy expectations faded quickly, returning the wafer market to a state of market-driven competition. Declines were noted in n-type 182 mm and 210R wafer variants by 1.8% week-on-week in calendar week 36, though they remained up by at least 18.6% month-on-month. The overall solar cell market remained subdued, with TOPCon prices across all sizes declining, indicating a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players.
