Prediction market startup Kalshi has significantly expanded its perpetual futures offerings, moving beyond initial cryptocurrency contracts to include gold, silver, platinum, copper, the MerQube US Large Cap Index (US500), and even currencies and interest rates. This expansion follows the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) approval of Kalshi's bitcoin perpetual contract in May, making it the first regulated domestic perpetual in the U.S. Since then, perpetual contracts on Kalshi have generated $16.1 billion in trading volumes, with Kalshi's chief risk officer, Udesh Jha, stating that much of this volume comes from institutional investors.
Kalshi's monthly commodity trading volume reached over $400 million, which the company claims is four times the volume of cryptocurrency at a similar stage of growth, seven months after launch. The company is in advanced discussions with regulators to further expand these never-expiring derivatives into asset classes like foreign exchange, metals, and energy, citing high demand driven by market interest and geopolitical factors. Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour previously indicated the company's interest in such expansion.
However, the expansion of perpetual futures has faced criticism, particularly regarding their risk to retail investors. These contracts allow investors to hold positions indefinitely and can involve significant leverage, sometimes as much as 50 times the contract's value, which can amplify losses rapidly. CME's outgoing CEO, Terry Duffy, has called these products a "disaster waiting to happen." Kalshi, through Andy Ross, a company representative, has countered that their regulated perimeter in the U.S. prevents the "huge amounts of leverage" seen on offshore platforms, with leverage caps depending on the underlying asset's volatility. The CFTC is also seeking public input on expanding perpetual contracts to storable energy commodities.
