Oil prices surged on September 10, 2026, with Brent crude futures rising 0.4% to $101.61 a barrel and US WTI gaining 0.51% to $96.54 a barrel. This increase followed intensified attacks on shipping by Iran and the United States, escalating a six-month-old conflict and dampening hopes for a recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Dated Brent has consistently traded above $100 since September 3, and oil flows through Hormuz remain significantly below pre-war levels.
The global energy crisis is deepening, as evidenced by surging tanker freight rates. Earnings for supertankers on the Middle East-to-China route reached a record of nearly $800,000 a day. Charterers for the US Gulf to Asia route offered very large crude carriers at a record lump-sum fee of $29.5 million. These rising costs reflect the complexities and workarounds necessitated by the drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its crude oil production plunged to 6.238 million barrels a day last month, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels a day and the lowest since 1990, due to renewed hostilities impacting export routes.
The global benchmark for crude oil topped $101 per barrel, and the US standard for diesel rose above $200 per barrel, marking only the second time this has occurred. Experts like Susan Bell from Rystad Energy noted that global stocks of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are at critically low levels, comparable to those seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, highlighted the severe diesel shortage, stating, "The global market is competing for a limited supply of diesel." The average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the US rose to $4.22, an all-time September high, and US diesel prices are at their highest ever. This situation is prompting central banks worldwide to consider further interest rate hikes to combat rising inflationary pressures.
Despite the overall supply squeeze in crude and refined products, the marine fuel market at major shipping hubs has shown signs of adaptation. Industry sources at the APPEC industry meet indicated that while refueling costs have increased, there are no immediate issues with sourcing and loading bunkers, unlike the severe crunch experienced in March and April. However, outright prices for very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, are up more than 60% compared to pre-war levels, driven by the US and Israel's attacks on Iran in late February.
The conflict has entered a new phase, with the US more aggressively attacking Iranian oil tankers and Iran targeting vessels in return. Yemeni Houthis have also escalated attacks on Saudi Arabian energy facilities and vessels in the Red Sea, forcing tankers to take alternative routes. As a result, moderate tanker traffic through Hormuz, which had sometimes reached above 50% of pre-war volumes, has again slowed to very little movement. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 44-year low, and there are no comparable reserves for fuels, with many refineries offline from the Middle East to Russia, exacerbating the supply challenges.
