A senior Iranian official stated that Iran is prepared for a more intense war and will escalate its counterstrikes if the United States continues to attack its territory and infrastructure. Tehran has no intention of backing down in the face of an American naval blockade and attacks on its oil tankers. While economic pain is increasing, Iran's leaders view the conflict with the U.S. as an existential threat, leaving them no choice but to continue fighting.
In contrast, President Donald Trump asserted that the war in Iran would conclude very shortly after the election, predicting that oil and gas prices would subsequently decrease. Speaking at the Republicans' midterm convention, Trump emphasized his commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, arguing that Iran is prolonging the conflict in hopes of a change in U.S. administration. He suggested that oil prices would plunge immediately after the election, pledging to lower U.S. gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon, though he admitted the full price drop might take "a little longer than the midterm elections."
The conflict has already led to significant disruptions in global oil markets. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel after Iran attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. Brent crude briefly climbed to $101.55 per barrel before closing at $101.21, marking the first time it surpassed $100 since July. The daily volume of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply diminished from approximately 8 million barrels per day to about 1 million barrels per day this week, severely impacting global supply.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's new security chief, indicated a fundamental recalibration of military posture regarding U.S. ships and bases, with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, stating, "The era of proportional response is over." These statements signal a readiness for more aggressive retaliation from Iran. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear "non-compliance," adding diplomatic pressure on Tehran amidst the escalating military tensions.
