Brent oil prices edged towards $102 a barrel on September 9, 2026, marking a fifth consecutive day of gains and closing above triple figures for the first time since July. This surge follows Iran's declaration of readiness for a more intense war, heightening concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies through the critical Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded around $97 a barrel.
Escalating US-Iran tensions, now in their seventh month, led to Brent crude futures settling at $101.21 a barrel on September 10, a 3.4% increase, and WTI futures reaching $96.06 a barrel, up 3.25%. Both benchmarks recorded their highest closes since May 22. Goldman Sachs projects that oil prices could surpass $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping intensify, while US President Donald Trump's advisors privately discussed the conflict potentially lasting through his term.
The conflict's intensification was marked by Iran's reported attack on 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and the US military's destruction of five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation. These events have reignited concerns about the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Shipping volumes through the strait have significantly decreased, with flows falling below 2 million barrels per day compared to 8-9 million barrels per day before the recent escalation.
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and an incident involving a tanker in Iraqi waters further amplify supply risks. The US Energy Information Administration has raised its oil price forecasts due to rapid global stockpile depletion from the Middle East supply loss. Dated Brent, the benchmark for roughly two-thirds of oil supply, has been above $100 per barrel since September 3, and consumers are already paying the equivalent of over $100 a barrel for refined fuels like gasoline and diesel.
