Estonian officials are working to calm public anxiety regarding a potential Russian attack, even as recent drone incursions from Russia and heightened Western media speculation have created concern. Jonatan Vseviov, a senior Estonian official, stated that while Russia poses a significant strategic threat, there is no acute military danger on Estonia's borders, and nothing has changed in recent months. This reassurance comes after two military drones crossed into Estonian airspace from Russia, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets.
Despite incidents like Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entering Estonian airspace in September, Estonian intelligence services do not believe Russia is preparing an imminent military attack on NATO. They suggest Russia might be rebuilding its forces for the long term while engaging in hybrid attacks through drones, cyber operations, and sabotage. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna reiterated that Russia is not in a strong position on the Ukrainian front, either militarily or economically, and is not concentrating forces to attack NATO or the Baltic states. Security experts also dismiss claims of an imminent Russian attack, arguing there are no concrete signs of Russia preparing to expand its military operations.
The context for these reassurances includes recent drone incidents, such as those in mid-May that prompted a Romanian NATO fighter jet scramble and a public alert in Lithuania. There have also been reports from US media, following a CIA director's visit to Moscow, suggesting Russia might test NATO's Article 5. However, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted no large-scale Russian military build-up around the Baltic states, unlike before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Instead, any near-term Russian action might be limited to air, missile, or drone strikes, or small land incursions designed to test NATO's collective response.
Baltic officials acknowledge the possibility of Russian provocations, with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda mentioning intelligence indicating potential limited attacks on critical infrastructure, and Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs warning of tests to Article 5 without full-scale invasion. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have jointly rejected Russian disinformation claiming they allow Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks, asserting that drone incursions are a result of Russia's war in Ukraine. While officials maintain threat assessments haven't changed regarding a conventional invasion, preparations continue for hybrid operations and limited military provocations.
