Bankers advising OpenAI and Anthropic on their upcoming stock market listings are aiming for the AI powerhouses to obtain investment-grade credit ratings shortly after going public. This strategy is designed to provide greater access to corporate bond investors, reduce borrowing costs, and offer an additional funding avenue for their capital-intensive infrastructure, reducing reliance on frequent stock issuance. Obtaining an investment-grade rating is crucial because many large fixed-income investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, face restrictions on the amount of lower-rated debt they can hold, thus opening up a significant market for these AI firms.
This move also signals a broader transformation in how the AI industry is financed. A January report from the Bank for International Settlements indicated that the escalating investment needs for AI technology can no longer be met solely through cash flow. Goldman Sachs Research projects global AI investments to surpass $1 trillion by 2026, with the U.S. contributing $581 billion. Economist Joseph Briggs estimates total global AI investments since 2022 could exceed $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026, while LSEG forecasts the five largest U.S. hyperscalers will spend approximately $720 billion in capital in 2026 alone.
However, a report from S&P Global Ratings on September 3, titled “Credit Outlook for Hyperscalers: A Temperature Check,” highlights concerns. It notes that capital expenditure is rising faster than anticipated, financing structures are becoming more complex and less transparent, and returns from borrowing may take several years to materialize. Despite these concerns, private market estimates for valuations are already substantial, with DeFiLlama data suggesting Anthropic is valued at about $1.38 trillion and OpenAI at roughly $900 billion, reflecting aggressive investor pricing in the sector. Should these companies achieve blockbuster IPOs coupled with investment-grade credit ratings, it would demonstrate public market willingness to fund frontier AI through both equity and large-scale debt, and reveal how much risk investors are prepared to take for such growth.
