Argentines continued to buy dollars in significant amounts in August, despite a stable exchange rate. Estimates indicate that personal dollar purchases ranged from $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion last month. This marks a deceleration from the extraordinary peak of July, when purchases reached over $3.3 billion, influenced by seasonal factors such as winter holidays, bonus payments, and the World Cup.
However, the current trend shows a rising floor for dollar purchases by individuals. August's figures are higher than June's ($2.44 billion) and May's ($2.21 billion), and significantly above the 2025 monthly average of around $2 billion. This persistent demand is concerning for banks, as the government aims to encourage peso demand to support disinflation and revive credit.
Approximately 1.7 million savers purchased dollars in July, indicating a structural base of individuals who prefer to hold their savings in dollars, even if it means losing value against inflation or local currency investments. This behavior persists despite an "extraordinary" supply of foreign currency, estimated between $8 billion and $9 billion per month, from increased exports.
This high dollar demand by savers, coupled with the Central Bank's efforts to accumulate reserves and a stable exchange rate, creates a complex scenario. If personal dollar purchases stabilize around $2.5 billion monthly, the government will have less flexibility in monetary policy. As the 2027 election approaches, this uncertainty could further drive dollarization of portfolios. In 2025, dollar demand exceeded $34 billion, and analysts anticipate this will be a minimum level for the upcoming electoral year.
