Mexico's 2026 budget includes 263.5 billion pesos, equivalent to $14.1 billion, earmarked for its state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to cover debt expenses. This allocation is part of a series of financial lifelines for the heavily indebted driller. The proposed budget for Pemex for next year totals 517.4 billion pesos ($27.7 billion), representing a 7.7% increase compared to 2025.
This allocation for Pemex's debt amortization is conditional on the company matching the amount through an improved financial balance, aiming for a net decline in Pemex's public debt by the end of 2026. The government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, plans measures to strengthen liquidity, optimize debt maturities, and lower supplier and financial costs for Pemex. The energy ministry (Sener), which absorbs the structure and functions of the defunct CNH, saw a real increase of nearly 87%, with 267 billion pesos, partly due to the bailout for Pemex.
Contradicting some earlier reports of significant cuts, the budget actually shows increased support for Pemex's financial stability. The transfer of 264 billion pesos to Pemex for market debt and bank loans is equivalent to 3.02% of 2026 budget revenues and 4.51% of tax revenues. Despite an increase in overall programmable spending by nearly 20% in 2026, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) faces a 1.8% budget decrease to 554.6 billion pesos, although it remains its largest allocation since 2019.
This fiscal strategy comes as the 2025 fiscal deficit was revised upward to 3.6% from 3.2%, following a 4.9% deficit in 2024, and is estimated at 3.6% for 2026. The widened deficit is estimated at 4.3% for this year, compared to the projected 3.9%, and at 4.1% for 2026. This indicates the difficulty of fiscal consolidation after the levels reached in 2024, as noted by James Salazar, deputy director of economic research at CI Banco. The government is prioritizing projects with high social and economic impact, with an emphasis on underserved regions and strategic sectors.
Earlier reports indicated Pemex faced a recorte of 164 billion pesos in subsidies for the first half of 2026, and a shortfall of 130.77 billion pesos in revenues against budgeted targets. This led to an emergency spending cut of over 45 billion pesos by Pemex itself. However, the newly unveiled budget figures show a substantial federal allocation for debt, indicating a different strategy to address Pemex's financial woes rather than a cut in overall support.
