The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 107.71 in July, an increase from an upwardly revised 106.74 in June. This rebound suggests ongoing strength in the labor market, even though it currently operates under a "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic, according to Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate at The Conference Board. Despite this July increase, the ETI is only 0.6% above its level from one year ago, indicating that future payroll growth might remain modest.
Several factors contributed positively to the ETI in July. The share of small firms reporting unfilled positions rose by 4 percentage points to 36% from 32% in June, reaching its highest point since June 2025. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, the second-largest positive contributor, decreased to their lowest level since September 2022, signaling limited layoffs. Additionally, job openings are estimated to have increased by 168,000 to 7.53 million, and real manufacturing and trade sales saw an estimated increase of 0.2%. The percentage of consumers finding "jobs hard to get" also declined to 21.5% from 21.7%.
Conversely, negative contributions to the ETI came from the share of involuntary part-time workers, which rose to 17.4% from 17.1% in June, and industrial production, which also contributed negatively. Seasonal factors, such as education worker cuts and the normalization of leisure and hospitality hiring after the FIFA World Cup, impacted non-farm payrolls, lowering them by 23,000 in July. Despite these volatile factors, underlying job growth is described as modest but positive.
