On September 7th, Brazil's Independence Day, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) participated in distinct events, reflecting their differing political agendas amidst a crisis involving the Supreme Tribunal Federal (STF). Lula attended the traditional civic-military parade in Brasília, alongside the presidents of the STF, Senate, and Chamber of Deputies, focusing his message on national sovereignty and the defense of democracy and natural resources. This institutional approach saw him cheered by an estimated 70,000 attendees, though no independent verification of this number was conducted.
Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, led a rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, where he vehemently criticized STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes and called for his impeachment. Bolsonaro's supporters, estimated at 28,500 people (with a 12% margin of error, ranging from 25,100 to 32,000), also expressed support for Justice André Mendonça. Bolsonaro directly linked Lula to Moraes, stating that "Whoever votes for Lula, is voting for Alexandre de Moraes," and vowed to end what he termed the "consortium of Lula with Moraes." He also pledged to appoint STF justices who oppose abortion, drugs, and "gender ideology in schools."
The events unfolded against the backdrop of a significant crisis within the STF, stemming from a public dispute between Justices André Mendonça and Alexandre de Moraes, and revelations regarding Moraes's alleged connections to Daniel Vorcaro and the Banco Master investigations. Lula's presence with top judiciary and legislative figures highlighted a more unified institutional front, while Bolsonaro's rally explicitly targeted Moraes and the perceived corruption within the judiciary. Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign strategy initially focused on broader issues like the economy, but the STF crisis has shifted his priority to direct confrontation with the judiciary.
The public turnout for Bolsonaro's rally was lower than previous Independence Day events, despite the STF crisis, with factors like cold weather potentially contributing. Although the crisis provides Bolsonaro with a rallying cry, early indications suggest it may not significantly expand his voter base. Both Lula and Bolsonaro are numerically tied at 41% in a recent Quaest poll for a hypothetical second-round election. The political significance of these events lies less in their size and more in how they are shaping the campaign strategies for the upcoming election, with the STF crisis now a central theme.
