The global maritime order, long assumed to guarantee free passage through international waters, is currently experiencing significant stress, leading to a re-evaluation of long-standing assumptions. This shift is particularly evident in strategic waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where military pressure and attacks on shipping are making passage conditional rather than assured. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which grants ships the right of transit through international straits, is being tested by non-state actors capable of imposing commercial risks, such as the Houthi militia in the Red Sea and Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the head of the UN's International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, stating that the rules are clear and no revision to UNCLOS is needed, the practical reality on the ground indicates that legal rights offer limited comfort against military threats.
Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, including recent attacks on oil tankers and plans for a new restricted zone, highlight the fragility of maritime freedom. Before the recent conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day flowed through the Strait, with current transits averaging over 9 million barrels per day. With pipelines bypassing the strait, total flows are estimated at "two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows." The attacks have led to at least 19 seafarers killed and dozens of ships attacked since March, making passage through Hormuz dangerous and forcing ships to avoid the waterway. This has impacted oil prices, with Brent crude rising 0.8 percent above $97 a barrel on Monday following a weekend exchange of strikes. Experts like Stephen Zunes note that while Iran may struggle to fully enforce a restricted zone against potential U.S. attacks, their actions serve as a warning to shipping companies.
The challenges to free navigation extend beyond the Middle East, with concerns in the Taiwan Strait due to Chinese aggression and the Baltic and Black Seas due to Russian and Ukrainian actions. The economic disparity in modern warfare further complicates the situation; for example, the Houthis can purchase an attack drone for a few thousand dollars, while the U.S. uses $2 million interceptors to counter them. Similarly, a $3 million Patriot round is needed to counter an Iranian Shahed missile costing around $35,000. This imbalance has made the cost of maintaining maritime security incredibly high. The U.S. Navy has expended an estimated $2 billion in munitions to protect its ships in the Red Sea, leading major shipping carriers to re-route around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid risk. This demonstrates how even powerful navies are struggling to assure open passage in contested littoral zones.
The "Carter Doctrine," which declared the Persian Gulf a key American interest, reflected past U.S. oil and gas needs. However, with the U.S. now a net energy exporter, the oil and gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz primarily flows to Asia, including China and East Asian allies. This shifts the strategic calculus for the U.S., which is effectively providing a free service to its competitors and allies without shared cost. The evolving situation suggests a future of "gated seas," where free passage is negotiated and purchased in a geopolitical marketplace rather than guaranteed by legal right. Commercial shippers may need to price political risk into every route and potentially contract armed private security or naval convoys, signaling a fragmented and disorderly navigational regime where each chokepoint may require separate negotiations for trading states or individual vessels.
