Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party saw a substantial surge in support, particularly due to the impact of the 2022-2023 electricity price increases. A study found that households experiencing an above-median rise in their electricity costs became 7.5 percentage points more likely to back the AfD. This shift in political allegiance persisted even though the energy shock was not caused by climate policy, was unanticipated by households, and occurred despite generous compensation efforts from the government.
The energy price shock itself was a direct consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which severely affected Germany given its heavy reliance on Russian gas and oil imports prior to the conflict. Electricity and gas prices rose significantly starting in 2021, leading to the substantial cost increases for consumers that fueled the political shift. The study highlighted that while support for the AfD increased, backing for other parties did not significantly change, although the Green party notably experienced a reduction in support among those most affected by the price hikes.
The AfD capitalized on these frustrations, recently securing a historic victory in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. In the state election, the AfD won 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 performance and making it the most popular party in the country, with 28% of voters nationwide indicating they would vote for it in the next national election. Although the AfD fell short of an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, winning 39 out of 83 seats, its strong showing was described by co-leader Alice Weidel as a "historic result" and a clear mandate to govern. The party's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, attributed the high voter turnout of 77.8% to a desire for change, specifically mocking Chancellor Friedrich Merz for inadvertently aiding their campaign.
This outcome has sent shockwaves through Germany's political establishment, forcing mainstream parties to confront the AfD's dramatic rise. Leaders from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Social Democratic Party (SPD), and Green party expressed concern and called for reflection on government policies. The results underscore how economic grievances, such as high energy costs, can translate into significant political gains for populist parties, even in established democracies with robust social safety nets.
