Iran, US Trade Tanker Attacks as Conflict Escalates

Oil prices surged as a result of recent military confrontations between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures increased by $0.52, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $0.66, or 0.72%, to $92.14 a barrel. These gains followed a week where Brent climbed 7.8% and WTI gained nearly 10%, fueled by renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflict intensified with both sides targeting vessels. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Iran’s main oil export hub. In retaliation, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported targeting three oil tankers traveling through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, along with three additional US vessels in other areas. The IRGC also claimed to have attacked a US naval drone and an American military unmanned surface vessel attempting to enter the strait.

This series of attacks has been labeled a "major escalation in the maritime conflict" by maritime intelligence firm Marisks, which noted that commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure. The firm warned that the distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping has substantially weakened. Consequently, only an average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, announced plans to declare a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days. He also stated that Iran would commit to keeping the Strait open if the US ceases its attacks and threats against Tehran. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October, as it works to agree on new quotas. Analysts from ANZ anticipate that oil exports will remain constrained through the end of 2026, with a gradual recovery not expected until late in the fourth quarter of 2026, and pre-war throughput levels not returning until early to mid-2027.