John Ternus, who became Apple's CEO on September 1, is launching his first major product cycle with a foldable iPhone, a voice-aware smart display, and an updated Siri platform, all central to Apple's AI strategy. This launch will be his first significant test, as he is known internally for his ability to bridge broad product planning and technical details, a skill Tim Cook highlighted during the succession announcement. Ternus also inherits challenges beyond product design, including a memory shortage and higher component costs, areas where he is expected to rely on COO Sabih Khan and CFO Kevan Parekh.
The foldable iPhone is anticipated to be a closely watched product, continuing a multi-year redesign of Apple's key device. It follows the thinner Air model from last year and precedes a glass-focused iPhone planned for the 20th anniversary in 2027. Despite industry speculation about phones being displaced by other AI hardware, Ternus has assured Wall Street analysts that the iPhone will remain central to Apple's strategy and customers' lives.
Analysts predict the foldable iPhone, which is expected to be unveiled alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup at Apple's September 9 event, could be its most expensive iPhone ever, with industry researcher TrendForce estimating a starting price between $2,099 and $2,299, and premium configurations potentially exceeding $3,000. Leaked Vodafone listings in Egypt and Australia suggest prices roughly 75% to 85% higher than the iPhone 17 Pro. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects 7 million to 8 million units of the foldable iPhone to ship in the second half of 2026, with only 500,000 to 1 million units in the third quarter, compared to 20 million to 22 million units for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max during the same period. This indicates constrained initial supply due to manufacturing complexity.
The high price point above $2,000 will test how far Apple can push the average selling price of the iPhone and whether consumers will justify the premium for the new form factor. A successful launch could demonstrate Apple's ability to significantly raise the upper boundary of smartphone pricing and potentially lift the average selling price of the entire iPhone portfolio. Conversely, a failure to convince consumers of the foldable's value could pose a risk. Investors will be closely watching official pricing, pre-order and delivery timing, and any guidance on initial production constraints.
JPMorgan analysts believe Apple under Ternus is bullish on its long-term pricing strategy, expecting the new fall iPhone lineup to feature only Pro models for the first time, including the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the foldable iPhone Ultra. They note that Pro models accounted for 65% of iPhone shipments last year, up from 37% in 2020. IDC projects the average foldable unit could go for $2,550, and Morgan Stanley analysts anticipate a revenue of $14 billion from the foldable iPhone in the quarter ending December 31. Counterpoint Research estimates Apple will capture a quarter of the foldable market in 2026, trailing Samsung's projected 32% share, while IDC predicts a 40% market share by 2027.
