Vladimir Putin is facing increasing pressure from both international allies and domestic elites to end the war in Ukraine. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly admonished Putin to seek peace, stating that "every day that the war continues, humanity is, in effect, set back a step." This public rebuke from a crucial trading partner, particularly as India has become a significant buyer of Russian oil (importing $172 billion in crude from Russia between 2022-2025, compared to just $2.3 billion in 2021), highlights Putin's growing isolation even among countries that have maintained relations with Russia.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also reportedly advised Putin to "freeze" the conflict, emphasizing that the war's objectives were no longer clear. This international pressure is complemented by growing discontent within Russia's elite. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, notes that some in the elite are realizing the war's continuation doesn't improve Russia's negotiating position. Figures like German Gref, head of Sberbank, and billionaire Andrey Melnichenko have reportedly expressed impatience with the war's economic impact and the Kremlin's approach.
The dissent among Russian elites is driven by the significant human and economic costs of the war, with nearly 40% of the Russian economy dedicated to the conflict. Reports suggest that wealthy individuals have moved tens of billions of dollars abroad in anticipation of potential instability. The growing internal unrest has led to increased security around Putin's residences and the bolstering of the 400,000-strong National Guard with heavy weaponry, suggesting preparations to suppress potential internal rebellions.
