Ukraine is escalating its drone campaign near Russian airports, aiming to transition from sporadic temporary closures to a complete paralysis of civilian air traffic in European Russia. This strategy, dubbed "Operation Carpet," involves deploying numerous drones to trigger air traffic control pauses, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warning airlines and insurers about the increasing unsafety of Russian airspace. While Ukraine has vowed not to target civilian airliners, the sheer volume of drones and Russian air defense activity is creating growing risks, including the use of GPS spoofing that can disorient civilian aircraft.
Since summer 2023, temporary airport closures due to drones have become more frequent, surging recently. In August, an average of 32 airports, including those around Moscow and St. Petersburg, faced daily closures. Despite this, Russian authorities have resisted formally closing their airspace for civil aviation, unlike Ukraine, which shut its own airspace in February 2022. Airlines from the Middle East and Asia, which benefited from the absence of Western competitors, are now re-evaluating the risks; Israeli carrier El Al halted Tel Aviv-Moscow flights in late June, and Air India rerouted a U.S.-to-Delhi flight in April. Following Zelenskyy's comments, Pegasus and Flydubai also adjusted their schedules and flight paths to Russia.
Since September 1, an average of 86 flights daily have been canceled by domestic and international carriers, according to Flightradar24. Aviation safety experts, like Matt Borie from Osprey, warn that the situation is becoming increasingly complex, raising concerns about a potential catastrophic event. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has cautioned member states about the growing risk to civilian planes and urged better coordination to prevent misidentification. Russian transport minister Andrei Nikitin, however, stated that Russia is improving flight safety and airport security and will prevent significant disruptions to civil aviation.
