Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz show a mixed picture regarding its openness and control. The US military has been actively involved in escorting commercial vessels, with officials claiming that 40 commercial ships carrying 18 million barrels of oil passed through the strait under US escort on a recent Tuesday. President Trump stated that the US was in "total control" of the waterway and even suggested renaming it. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that "at least 10 million barrels" and up to 17 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait daily.
However, these claims are contradicted by independent shipping data. Marine analytics firm Kpler reported only six vessels on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday, and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of 13 vessels per day. Lloyd’s List Intelligence observed an average of around 12 transits daily from August 26 to September 1. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) described commercial traffic as "far below baseline," despite a "modest uptick."
Iran, on its part, maintains that the strait remains under its control and is closed to all except pre-approved vessels, warning other ships of potential targeting. The discrepancy in figures might be attributed to differing methodologies: the US may include smaller or non-cargo-carrying ships, naval auxiliaries, and vessels operating with their transponders off (referred to as "dark transits") in its count, whereas firms like Lloyd's only count cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 deadweight tonnage. These dark transits, where ships switch off their tracking beacons, have become more common, requiring data revisions to include them.
The ongoing disruption is severe enough that Mitsui OSK Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura expects the situation in the Strait of Hormuz to remain too risky for regular shipping beyond 2026. He noted that the company had initially hoped for a phased resumption by October, with normal operations by January, but that timeline is now unfeasible. This prolonged disruption is forcing Japanese oil refiners, who previously sourced over 90% of their crude from the Middle East, to seek alternative supplies and routes and to draw from national stockpiles.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas was shipped during peacetime, has made its status a major point of contention in the ongoing conflict. Both the US and Iran have an incentive to emphasize their control and influence over the waterway. Oil prices did see a decline on Thursday morning following reports of easing tensions, with Brent crude futures falling 0.45% to $95.2 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude shedding 0.26% to $90.77.
