The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is actively seeking public input on the development of futures contracts for computing power, a crucial element for the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence industry. This move comes as several prominent exchanges, including CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), have announced their intentions to introduce trading in these contracts, pending regulatory approval. These exchanges believe that a futures market for computing power will provide essential tools for both end-users and speculators to hedge against risks such as energy shortages or other factors that could impede AI developers' progress.
CME Group, in collaboration with index provider Silicon Data, is set to launch two futures contracts on October 5th, pending regulatory review. These contracts, which will be listed on NYMEX, are tied to the hourly rental price of Nvidia's H100 and the upcoming Blackwell B200 chips. Each contract will represent one month's rent for a single GPU and will be cash-settled against indexes provided by Silicon Data, a firm that has been tracking GPU capacity rental costs for two years. CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy has likened compute to "the new oil of the 21st century," underscoring its growing importance.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is also making significant strides in this area, having announced plans with Ornn for GPU compute futures based on Ornn's Compute Price Index. Additionally, ICE has partnered with NATIVX for futures based on NATIVX's COIL Index, which tracks tokenized, energy-normalized compute and connectivity. Trabue Bland, ICE senior vice president, Futures Exchanges, emphasized the need for a globally accepted pricing mechanism and risk management tool for the evolving compute market. ICE's historical roots as an electricity exchange also positions it well in this new market, as its founder Jeffrey Sprecher noted the connection between compute and electricity input.
Other players are also entering the fray. Architect Financial Technologies, after acquiring IMX Health, plans to launch the American Innovation Exchange, an AI Exchange for futures and options trading on compute costs tied to various GPU vendors and models. This exchange aims to be a definitive U.S. market for data centers, neoclouds, hyperscalers, chip manufacturers, and AI model companies. The CFTC's public comment period is seen by Chairman Michael Selig as a way to transform a "costly and unpredictable input into a commodity with reliable price discovery and effective hedging," which could bolster America's leadership in AI. However, some, like Don Wilson, founder of DRW and an investor in Silicon Data, argue against delaying the launch of these futures with a lengthy comment period, advocating for a fast track to maintain U.S. competitive advantage in AI.
