Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, faces a substantial drop in its 2026/27 cocoa crop. The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) initially projected a potential fall to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT, representing a decline of up to 40% from the 750,000 MT harvested in the 2025/26 season. This grim outlook was attributed to the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the anticipated adverse weather conditions from an El Niño event.
More recently, a COCOBOD field survey based on pod counts in late August adjusted the 2026/27 crop estimate to 650,000 MT, which still marks a 13% decrease from the 750,000 MT produced in 2025/26. The 2025/26 season itself saw a robust harvest, up 25.6% from 597,000 MT in 2024/25. Despite the slight revision upwards from the initial dire warning, concerns remain high among analysts. StoneX, an independent forecaster, provided a less severe estimate of a 10% decline, predicting 585,000 MT for 2026/27.
Factors contributing to the projected decline include pervasive issues like black pod disease, swollen shoot disease, and a large number of aging cocoa trees. Excessive rainfall in May and June, followed by limited sunshine, has also reduced pod development. Furthermore, the risk of a strong El Niño weather pattern, which typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, is expected to reduce soil moisture, stress cocoa trees, and lower yields in the upcoming season. These challenges are compounded by the natural alternate-bearing cycle of cocoa trees and a low number of surviving young pods (cherelles).
The potential reduction in Ghana's cocoa output is providing support for cocoa prices, which have seen rallies to two-week highs. Underlying medium-term support for prices also comes from concerns about a smaller Ivory Coast cocoa crop, with early assessments indicating poor pod development and a projected 1.8 million MT for the season starting in September, down 18% from about 2.2 million MT in 2025/26. StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 MT from 149,000 MT in April, while Transgraph Consulting forecasts a global surplus shrinking to 80,000 MT from 415,000 MT in 2025/26, primarily due to expected production declines in West Africa.
COCOBOD is attempting to mitigate losses by rehabilitating infected farms, expanding insecticide and fungicide spraying, and reintroducing a nationwide free fertilizer distribution scheme for the 2026/27 crop year. However, the regulator faces significant financial strain, with a board debt exceeding 60 billion cedis (approximately $5.5 billion) and an estimated $750 million owed to domestic supply networks due to Licensed Buying Company arrears. These financial challenges hinder the capital needed for safe bean mobilization and storage. Demand for cocoa has shown mixed signals, with Q2 European grindings down 4.6% year-on-year, while North American grindings unexpectedly rose by 7.7%, and Asian grindings increased by 25%.
