U.S. forces initiated a new round of strikes against Iranian rocket launchers located on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command stated that these launchers were being prepared to deploy sea mines into the strait. This action marks the first American strike in several weeks and raises concerns about a return to full-scale conflict in the Middle East. Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the command, emphasized that the U.S. would not permit Iran to place more mines after recent efforts to clear the strait's international shipping routes. Iranian media reported three casualties from the U.S. attack.
In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at two U.S. air bases in Jordan. Jordanian military officials confirmed intercepting eight missiles that entered their airspace. U.S. President Donald Trump responded by threatening further strikes, stating, "We're going to hit them hard." The conflict, which has been ongoing for seven months, has already cost the U.S. military billions of dollars and has led to increased energy prices due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The renewed hostilities immediately impacted oil prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by $2.12, or 2.47%, to $87.88 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by $1.72, or 1.9%, to $92.21 per barrel. Analysts like John Evans from PVM noted that these tit-for-tat exchanges validate the view that this conflict will be prolonged. Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, highlighted that the fresh hostilities raised concerns about disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
The Trump administration is reportedly considering a strategy of periodic, limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from reconstituting its radar and missile capabilities used to attack ships. This approach, framed by some officials as "mow[ing] the lawn," aims to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks on maritime traffic. However, critics like Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warn that such a strategy would constitute a "forever war." Meanwhile, Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati stated that Iran possesses sufficient foreign currency reserves and is prepared to inject up to $2 billion into the foreign exchange market to stabilize recent volatility.
Despite U.S. efforts, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at all-time lows, having plummeted from about 100 ships daily to an average of seven during the conflict. Commerzbank analysts expressed concern that hopes for reopening the strait have been severely dashed, questioning whether unofficial vessel traffic can continue unhindered in the event of further escalation. The U.S. had previously focused on economic sanctions and a maritime blockade, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launching "Operation Economic Outcast" to isolate Iran, aiming to avoid a large-scale kinetic restart.
