The ongoing threat of El Niño, coupled with disease outbreaks and aging farms, is raising significant concerns for West Africa's cocoa production, which accounts for over half of the global supply. Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, is particularly affected. Its cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projects a significant decline in output for the 2026/27 season, with estimates ranging from 450,000 to 550,000 metric tonnes, down from the 750,000 metric tonnes expected in the 2025/26 season. This anticipated decrease is attributed to swollen shoot disease, older plantations, and adverse weather conditions linked to El Niño.
Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is also facing production challenges. Early field assessments indicated below-average cherelle formation, a precursor to pods. While recent surveys show some improvement in pod development, the estimated production for the 2026/27 season is approximately 1.8 million metric tonnes, which is about 18% lower than the previous season. Nigeria, another key producer in the region, is expected to see its output fall by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 metric tonnes during the 2025/26 season, according to the Cocoa Association of Nigeria.
The combined impact of these factors has prompted market analysts to revise their global cocoa surplus forecasts downward. StoneX, a commodity intelligence firm, has reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 25,000 metric tonnes from an earlier estimate of 149,000 metric tonnes. Similarly, Transgraph Consulting projects the global cocoa surplus to shrink to 80,000 metric tons in 2026-2027 from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026, primarily due to an expected decline in production from 5.11 million metric tonnes to 4.87 million metric tonnes. These concerns about reduced supply have contributed to cocoa prices reaching an 11-month high in New York.
Historically, every strong El Niño event over the past 55 years has resulted in reduced cocoa output. During the moderate-to-strong El Niño from mid-2023 to mid-2024, West Africa initially experienced excessive rainfall, which led to fungal diseases in cocoa trees. This pattern then shifted to intense heat and unseasonably dry Harmattan winds, causing weakened trees to shed their flowers. Experts emphasize that El Niño's effects are complex and, due to climate change, can manifest as both initial heavy rains and subsequent droughts, both detrimental to cocoa crops. In Ecuador, the third-largest producer, El Niño is expected to bring excessive rainfall and high temperatures, potentially increasing disease outbreaks.
Despite these concerns for future harvests, some recent production figures have been strong. Ghana's cocoa board reported harvesting 750,000 metric tonnes for the 2025/26 season, a 25.6% increase from 597,000 metric tonnes in 2024/25. Farmers in Ivory Coast delivered 2.11 million metric tonnes to ports between October 2025 and late July 2026, marking a 21% increase compared to the same period a year prior. Nigeria's cocoa exports also rose by 30% year-on-year in June. However, analysts warn that the combination of climate risks, disease, and aging farms will remain the primary determinants of global cocoa supplies in the upcoming season.
