The United Arab Emirates has successfully restored its crude oil and condensate exports to levels seen before the Iran war, according to recent tanker-tracking data. In August, shipments surged by approximately 30% to over 3.9 million barrels per day, a figure that is just shy of the highest levels recorded since 2017. This recovery contrasts sharply with the broader Middle Eastern oil export landscape, where overall Gulf oil exports were still 82% below pre-war levels in August, even after recovering from a low of 1.4 million barrels per day in May to 3.6 million barrels per day.
This rebound has been achieved through a dual strategy. The UAE has been dispatching "dark ships" through the Strait of Hormuz, often moving oil onto other tankers in the Gulf of Oman to avoid detection. Concurrently, the nation has significantly increased its use of the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the contested waterway. While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for all producers remains severely reduced, down from an average of 88 ships per day pre-war to around 16 ships per day, the UAE's ability to adapt highlights its greater resilience compared to other Gulf nations.
While the specific "Major UAE Oil Refinery Returns to Full Capacity After War Hit" article from Bloomberg could not be directly accessed, related reports indicate that the UAE's Ruwais refinery and Habshan gas plant were among the facilities attacked during the initial wave of strikes in early March. Despite these challenges, UAE refinery runs are projected to reach around 700,000 barrels per day in Q3 2026, with earlier disruptions at Ruwais largely resolved. The primary constraint now is restricted product exports, suggesting that the UAE is well-positioned to further increase refinery runs if shipping conditions improve. A recovery to 800,000 barrels per day by Q4 is expected, with a stronger increase anticipated in Q1 2027.
This recovery in UAE exports is crucial for global crude prices, helping to stabilize them and mitigate fears of an energy-driven inflation spike, even as the Iran war continues. The conflict has caused significant disruptions, with global supply falling by about 12 million barrels per day at its peak. Brent crude prices, which were above $70 per barrel before the conflict, surged to an intraday peak of $126 per barrel on April 30 before settling around $88 per barrel. The UAE's strategic flexibility, including its plans to double Fujairah's export capacity with a new pipeline by 2027, has proven vital in navigating these volatile market conditions.
