European capitals are increasingly concerned that Russia, facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine, may seek to expand the conflict to other parts of Europe. This fear is fueled by recent bellicose statements from Russia, particularly against the Baltic states, including threats to bomb "decision-making centers" in Latvia and suspected Russian drone incursions near Lithuania. Officials are particularly worried Russia might attempt to test NATO's cohesion by targeting a Baltic nation, Swedish or Danish islands, or Arctic territories, especially given recent threats from former President Trump regarding NATO commitment.
U.S. intelligence reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited assault on a NATO ally within the next few years, potentially ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion. This assessment marks a shift from previous intelligence, which believed Putin would not provoke NATO while still engaged in Ukraine. The timeframe for such a move is estimated to be between this fall and 2029. Putin's objective in such an attack would be to fracture the alliance, especially as the U.S. has depleted some critical munitions due to transfers to Ukraine and conflicts with Iran, including Precision Strike Missiles and Stinger surface-to-air missiles.
The likelihood of a limited land incursion, while low, is seen as increasing over time. Such an event would trigger NATO's Article 5, committing members to collective defense, though the response to cyber or hybrid threats is less clear. A recent trip by the CIA Director to Moscow served to warn Russia against attacking NATO. Despite these concerns, intelligence officials note no immediate signs of Russia moving troops or equipment for attacks outside Ukraine, but Putin may face difficult choices due to attrition rates, with Russian forces reportedly losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month, a rate unsustainable without further mobilization.
