Poland anticipates its economic growth will decelerate to 2% by 2030, a consequence of necessary fiscal tightening. This slowdown comes amidst projections of high budget deficits, with the 2027 deficit expected to remain at 7.1% of GDP, unchanged from 2026. This level significantly exceeds the 3% GDP limit set by the European Union, under which Poland has been operating an excessive deficit procedure since July 2024. The Finance Ministry confirmed that while the 2027 budget plan is "tight but responsible," it signals a continuation of expansionary fiscal policy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also expressed concerns about rising fiscal vulnerabilities, projecting Poland's debt to reach 76% of GDP by 2030 without significant adjustments, and recommending a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 4% of GDP by 2030 to stabilize debt at 70% of GDP.
Key parameters for the 2027 budget include projected revenue of 695 billion zlotys ($186.82 billion) and expenditures of 977.6 billion zlotys, resulting in a nominal budget deficit of 282.6 billion zlotys. Defense spending remains a high priority, accounting for 198 billion zlotys, or more than 4.5% of GDP, driven by record military equipment deliveries. Other significant expenditures include healthcare at 274.1 billion zlotys and energy security and transformation at 19.7 billion zlotys. Economic growth for 2027 is forecast at 3.0%, with inflation at 2.8% and unemployment at 6%. Gross borrowing needs are expected to decrease to below 565 billion zlotys, but debt servicing costs are projected to rise to 107 billion zlotys, an increase of 17 billion zlotys from 2026, due to higher interest rates on refinancing older debt.
Financial analysts, such as those from ING Bank Śląski, note that Poland is making no progress in correcting its excessive deficit, which will lead to a further increase in public debt. This situation has led Fitch and Moody’s to shift Poland's credit outlook to negative, citing political gridlock between the government and the opposition-aligned President Karol Nawrocki as a complicating factor in tackling the deficit. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, however, defended the 2027 budget by highlighting the country's need to maintain strong defense spending amidst regional conflicts. The upcoming parliamentary elections in 2027, where Tusk's coalition will seek reelection, add a political dimension to these fiscal challenges, with the budget reflecting a tightrope walk between fiscal responsibility and political considerations.
