Iceland is conducting a crucial referendum this Saturday to decide whether to restart negotiations to join the European Union. This vote comes as the fiercely independent nation of nearly 400,000 people grapples with balancing its sovereignty, particularly over its valuable fisheries, against the potential economic stability and enhanced security that EU membership could offer. Polls leading up to the referendum have shown a very close race, with one survey indicating a slight lead for the "Yes" vote at 51.3% compared to 48.7% for "No," while earlier polls suggested a neck-and-neck contest.
The debate is heavily influenced by domestic issues, primarily the economy, sovereignty, and fisheries. Supporters of joining the EU argue that membership, and potentially adopting the euro, could help stabilize Iceland's volatile currency, alleviate soaring living costs, and reduce high interest rates, which currently stand at 9.5%. They also believe it would provide an additional layer of political and economic security amidst rising geopolitical uncertainties and questions regarding the future of the transatlantic relationship. Conversely, opponents fear that EU membership would compromise Iceland's sovereignty and its control over its "priceless" fishing waters, a sector that accounts for almost 40% of the country's exports. They express concern that the EU's common fisheries policy could lead to a loss of control over these lucrative resources.
Geopolitical developments have added a significant dimension to the referendum. Diminishing trust in the U.S. as a security partner, particularly following former President Trump's repeated comments about acquiring Greenland, has led many Icelanders to reconsider the country's long-standing bilateral defense agreement with the U.S. dating back to 1951. As a founding member of NATO without its own military, Iceland's security traditionally relies on its NATO allies and this agreement. However, the perceived unreliability of the U.S. has prompted some to view EU membership as a way to strengthen Iceland's security and trade position, offering a shield from larger powers. Officials also cite Russia's increased maritime activities near Iceland's waters as a security concern, with a Russian intelligence ship tracked in Iceland's Exclusive Economic Zone in June.
Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of politics at Bifröst University, notes that while geopolitical factors are influencing the context, the core of the debate remains centered on domestic concerns. However, the "Greenland crisis" and a general distrust of the U.S. as a security partner are bolstering the pro-EU campaign. Hildur Knútsdóttir, a writer, expressed significant fear in Iceland that if Trump were to take Greenland by force, Iceland might be next. If the "Yes" vote prevails, negotiations with Brussels are expected to proceed relatively quickly, potentially taking "months, not years," given that 11 of the 35 negotiation areas were already finalized before previous talks were suspended. However, any final membership deal would still require a second referendum in Iceland and unanimous agreement from the 27 EU member states.
