Super-tanker earnings have skyrocketed to nearly $625,000 per day, driven by the ongoing war in Iran and the associated disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This figure represents a modelled round-voyage time charter equivalent for a standard 270,000-tonne VLCC moving crude from the Persian Gulf to China, up by $20,941 in a single day. Some analysts, like Clarksons, suggest a modern VLCC willing to enter the Strait of Hormuz could command as much as $800,000 per day, reflecting the significant risk premium.
The surge in tanker rates is not solely due to nominal fleet capacity, but rather the willingness of owners and crews to operate in high-risk zones, the availability of war-risk insurance, and the immediate readiness of vessels. The security threat around the Strait of Hormuz has intensified, making it challenging to meet the conditions for a VLCC to become effective supply for a Persian Gulf cargo. This has widened the gap between nominal fleet capacity and commercially usable capacity.
Despite the risks, the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing, with estimates ranging from 6 million to 8 million barrels a day. This is roughly half of pre-war levels. Middle Eastern producers are employing strategies like shuttle runs, where barrels are transported just outside the Persian Gulf by some tankers and then collected by others unwilling to enter the Strait. This covert shipping, along with increased output from Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, is helping to keep global crude oil prices in check, with Brent oil futures trading around $88 a barrel.
